June 2013 Monthly Report
First,
a mea culpa: last month, we speculated that it was likely that we would
now have an NDP government. Like everyone else, we were wrong. With the
Liberals' reelection, it's likely that there will not be any big
surprises that will impact the housing market. Expect the status quo.
One
sector that will likely benefit from having a Liberal over an NDP
government is the commercial real estate market. After a strong run in
the residential real estate market over the past several years, more and
more people have begun asking questions about commercial real estate
and its viability as an investment product. The answer to this question
is that commercial real estate has proven to be a strong, ...
Welcome to your monthly update on Greater Vancouver Real Estate.
Changes From the Reintroduction of GST/PST?
With
the reintroduction of the GST/PST tax regime on April 1st, I have
received some questions about how this will affect the real estate
market. The short answer is: There will be a minimal effect; some people
will win, while others will lose. However, we must break down its
effects into 3 separate categories: New Construction, Resale, and Fees.
New Construction
This
category is the one that is likely to be most influenced by the change
back from HST to GST. All new residential construction will be taxable
at the 5% rate rather than the previous 12%. However, the government
will also be elimina ...
Mortgage Wars Are Back
There has been a lot of mortgage news recently as the Big Banks fight
for market share with record-low mortgage rates. Last year, we covered
how BMO Bank of Montreal started the mortgage wars by offering a 2.99%
5-year fixed rate mortgage. Other lenders followed suit, matching the
2.99% rate, but generally offering only a 4-year option. After a month,
RBC Royal Bank signaled the end of this war by raising its rates by 50
basis points to 3.49%. Other lenders followed RBC's lead in order to
shore up their profit margins.
One year later, in preparation of the Spring Housing Market, BMO is
once again offering a posted 2.99% rate while other lenders are offering
a 2.89% 5-year fixed rat ...
Luxury Market stumbles, but still records 2nd best year
The
BC luxury home market stumbled in 2012 as sales of high-end homes fell
36% from their peak in 2011. However, even with the drop, 2012 was still
the 2nd best year in history for sales of luxury homes.
439
$3-million+ homes transacted in 2012, down from a peak of 691 in 2011.
However, to demonstrate how far prices in BC's real estate market have
increased over the past 10 years, only 10 homes sold for over $3 million
in the year 2000. Of the 439 homes that sold for over $3-million in
2012, 107 sold for over $5-million and 44 were condos or townhomes. The
most expensive home sold in 2012 was by Macdonald Realty for $19.8
Million.
The
majority of homes sol ...
Market Update January 2013
2012
was a transition year for real estate in many areas of the Province, as
many hot markets cooled and took an inevitable 'breather' while others
look poised to turn positive. The rapid run-up in prices in a core set
of markets (Vancouver, Richmond, Burnaby, and West Vancouver) over the
past few years has actually overshadowed the fact that many other areas
of the province have experienced slow to average markets since 2008.
Looking forward, it appears as though 2013 will see a continuation of
2012, with flatter market in some of the traditionally hotter areas and a
stronger market in areas that have recently performed relatively
poorly.
In
December, Macdonald Realty surveyed its man ...
November Market Update
It's been a relatively slow summer and fall housing market for most
areas of the province. That being said, prices have remained stable
through the balance of 2012. So our forecast from December 2011 was half
right: our survey of managers at that time predicted flat prices and a
similar number of sales. We were right on the first forecast and wrong
on the second.
Much of the blame for the decrease in housing sales can go to the
federal government, which moved to tighten mortgage rules in June of
this year. Historically, tightening of this type has led to a slower
housing market for the following 3-6 month period, followed by a return
to a normal market after the adjustment. That m ...
If you talk with a condo owner who has had the unfortunate experience
where their building has required major remedial work, like in the case
of a leaky condo where the entire exterior of a building needs to be
replaced or repaired, they will tell you how expensive this can be and
the steep special levies and assessments they have been hit with to get
the building fixed. Even more unfortunate is the fact that when the
owners decide to sell their unit they rarely ever get the money spent
fixing the problem back from their selling price. I have seen 20 year
old units where the owners have just spent $50,000 fixing a leaker -
sell the unit for the same price as the 20 year old unit in the building
next door. Now, with ...
October 2012 Market Update
Summer is traditionally a slower time for real estate and 2012 was no
different. Lower sales activity had several prognosticators predicting
that Canada's housing market would see a correction; however, to date,
prices have remained relatively stable in most jurisdictions. In fact,
Vancouver's seemingly inflated Westside saw its average price rise by
15% over August 2011 thanks to a relatively low sales volume and several
significant transactions (this is why last month we talked about how
misleading 'average' statistics can be).
But aside from internal market forces, it's hard not to ignore how
problems in the US and Europe and the resulting economic turmoil will
influence ou ...
Vancouver's new housing affordability initiative is only going to increase
the value of single detached homes even more in my opinion. The price
appreciation gap between detached single family homes and condos had been
growing the past 20 years. Back in 1977 there was very little difference in the
average price of a condo compared to a single family home. Now that gap
is huge! the average detached home is worth almost 3 times that of the average
condo. This new initiative which will help developers cut red tape and allow
them to build denser housing projects faster which will result in more
applications to rezone existing single family homes into multi family strata
condos and townhomes. The math is quite simple if ...